Petersburg Times
and other publications.novatris.hieurope
.-based global research company that blends premier strategic consulting
with innovative and efficient
methods of investigation, analysis and
application.
Harris Interactive combines its intellectual
capital, databases and
technology to advance market leadership through U.S.novatris.harrispollonline
. 5/05
dod bookshop
* Real-time analysis of results on primary nights.com), Paris-based
Novatris
(http://www.Labour Enjoys a 13-Point Lead in Party Identification but Tories More Likely to Vote
A somewhat larger proportion, though a minority of eligible voters (42%),
say they are satisfied
with the NHS, compared to those who say they are
dissatisfied (37%). Women are more dissatisfied
than men (39% compared to 34%
women).
TABLE 2
LIKELIHOOD TO VOTE IN UPCOMING ELECTION
"How certain will you be to vote
in the general election on May 5, 2005?"
Base: All Adults in Great Britain who are eligible
to vote
Total Gender Party ID
Male Female Conservative Labour Liberal Other
Democrat Party
% % % %
% % %
Absolutely certain
to vote 51 54 48 63
48 56 52
Quite certain to
vote 20 19 21 19
23 20 16
Probably will vote 15 12 17 11 14 16
14
Probably will not
vote 5 5 4 2 7 3
2
Certainly will not
vote 6 7 5 5 5
4 11
Not sure/Decline
to answer 4 2 5 1 3
1 5
TABLE 3
EXPECTATIONS
FOR ELECTION OUTCOME
"Given everything you know about the upcoming election, what do you
expect
the outcome to be, looking at the options below?"
Base: All Adults in Great Britain
who are eligible to vote
Total
Gender
Male Female
% % %
Expect the election to
be close. Propensity score weighting was
also used to adjust for respondents' propensity to be online
.dod moreover
CQPolitics.Com to Provide Comprehensive 2006 Election Coverage
* Among the eligible voters
who say they are absolutely certain to vote,
Labour leads the Conservatives by 38 percent
to 33 percent, a
five-point lead, with the Liberal Democrats getting 22 percent of the
vote.
* Labour leads in all regions of the country except London and the South
East and Meridian (South Central England)
* Labour leads among all households with incomes
below 50,000 pounds. If you had to say, which party are you most inclined to support?
Base:
All adults
All Eligible Absolutely Certain
Voters To Vote
%
%
Labour 39 38
Conservative
32 33
Liberal Democrat 23
22
Other Parties 7 7
Labor Lead
7% 5%
Note: Percentages may not add to 100% because of rounding
TABLE 2
Likelihood of Voting -- By Voting
Intention
Base: All adults
Conservative Labour
Liberal Democrat
% % %
Absolutely
67 61 60
Certain
Certain 17
16 20
Probably Will 8 12 10
Probably Will 2 3 3
Not
Certain Not To
5 4 4
Not Sure/Refused 2 4
4
Note: Percentages may not add to 100% because of rounding
TABLE 3
Demographic Breakouts
Base: Adults Absolutely Certain to Vote in 5 May 2005 Election
Conservatives Labour Liberal
Democrat
Gender
Men % 35 35
22
Women % 31 40 22
Age
Age 18-29 % 25 35 33
Age 30-49
% 26 43 24
Age 50 and over % 41
35 18
ITV Regions
Scotland* % 15 39
22
Greater London and % 36 34 21
South
Midlands % 34 41 19
Lancashire
% 29 44 23
Yorkshire % 33
45 19
Meridian % 40 28 29
North
East % 32 45 19
Wales and West %
30 42 25
Household Income
Less than pounds %
31 40 22
Sterling 15,000
pounds 15,000-29,999 % 30
43 20
pounds 30,000-49,999 % 36 35
24
pounds 50,000 or more % 40 32 24
2001 Vote
Voted Conservative in % 92 1 5
2001
Voted Labour
in 2001 % 8 77 12
Voted Liberal % 15
14 68
Democrat in 2001
Election Expectation %
Expect
Election to Be % 39 36 20
Close
Expect Labour to Win
% 15 51 28
Big
* SNP receives 20% of the vote
in Scotland
Though this online sample was not a probability sample, in theory, with
probability
samples of this size, one could say with 95 percent certainty that
the results for the overall sample
have a sampling error of plus or minus 2
percentage points of what they would be if the entire adult
population had
been polled with complete accuracy. Harris Interactive and HI Europe Launch The
Harris Poll in Europe
ROCHESTER, N.
-- Somewhat higher proportions of eligible
voters are pessimistic about
the future of the economy (36%) or are neither optimistic nor
pessimistic (34%) than are optimistic (30%).aristotle briefing
(CQ), the
nation's leading source of news
and analysis on the federal government, today
announced the launch of CQPolitics.
Gregory L.
And
CQPolitics. Only 11 percent of online adults said they would certainly not vote
using this system
. 26 31 22
Expect the Conservatives to win by a big
margin
2 2 2
Not Sure
13 10 15
Decline to Answer
1 1 1
TABLE 4
SATISFACTION
WITH NATIONAL HEALTH SERVICE
"Overall, how satisfied are you with the service provided by
the National
Health Service (NHS)?"
Base: All Adults in Great Britain who are eligible
to vote
Total Gender
Male Female
% % %
Satisfied (NET)
42 44 41
Very Satisfied 12
15 10
Somewhat Satisfied 30 29 31
Neither Satisfied Nor Dissatisfied 20 21 18
Dissatisfied (NET)
37 34 39
Somewhat Dissatisfied
26 23 28
Very Dissatisfied 11
10 11
Not Sure 1 2 1
Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding.
While all respondents of the online survey
are Internet users, HI Europe's
ongoing parallel studies and extensive experience enable us to weight
the
sample to represent the GB adult population.hieurope.epolitix campaigning
CQ columnist Craig Crawford, a familiar
figure to TV news watchers and CQ readers, will provide regular commentary. This is our final prediction
.
Survey Methodology
This HI Europe Harris Poll was conducted online among 6,411 eligible
voters (adults aged 18 and over) throughout Great Britain from 1 through 4
May, 2005.
To
become a member of the Harris Poll Online(SM) and be invited to
participate in future online surveys
, visit http://www.
Other important findings from the survey of eligible British voters are:
-- 46% think that taking military action against Iraq was the wrong thing
to do
, 38% think that it was the right thing to do and 16% are not
sure.
TABLE 1
PARTY ID
"Regardless of
how you may vote, with which party do you normally think of
as your party?"
Base: All
Adults in Great Britain who are eligible to vote
Total Gender
Whether Voted in 2001
Male Female Voted Was
Eligible
But Did Not
Vote
%
% % % %
Labour 40 39 41 41
40
Conservative 27 31 22 31 17
Liberal Democrat
17 17 18 16 18
Other Party 3 3 3
3 4
None of These 5 5 5 4 9
Not Sure 8 6 10 5 11
Percentages may not add
up to 100% due to rounding.dod aristotle
, publisher of the St.
The key findings in this Harris Poll are:
* Among all eligible voters, Labour enjoys a seven-point lead over the
Tories with
the Liberal Democrats getting the support of 23 percent.hieurope., A new Harris Poll of more
than
2,000 adults over age 18 conducted online in Great Britain by HI Europe,
subsidiary of Harris Interactive
(R), between April 26 and 28 finds that while
substantially more people think of themselves as Labour
Party supporters than
Conservatives, Conservatives are more likely to vote. They include refusals
to be interviewed (non-response), question wording and question order, and
weighting.Y.yougov mp
This
highly anticipated site brings its readers comprehensive
election coverage every day all day long
, offering daily updates, election
prediction, and real-time analysis of major events.
"With
the launch of CQPolitics.
About Congressional Quarterly Inc.
With more than 125 reporters
, editors and researchers covering Capitol
Hill and Washington, CQ is an award-winning and path breaking
news
organization that publishes in print and online, and on a weekly, daily and
real-time basis
.soundbites politico
Giroux, senior politics reporter, is now in his fifth election
cycle on the politics team. Petersburg
, Fla.
* Younger and middle-aged voters going strongly for Labour but
Conservatives
leading among people over 50 by six points.
This survey finds men are more likely than women
to think of themselves as
Conservative (31% to 22%) and women are more likely than men to view
themselves
as Labour supporters (41% to 39%). Men are more likely than women to think that it was the right
thing to do (46% compared to 30% women). Unfortunately, there are several other
possible sources
of error in all polls or surveys that are probably more
serious than theoretical calculations of
sampling error. EOE
M/F/D/V.whitehall politico
com is a free blog-style
Web site staffed by the most trusted reporting
team in political journalism
that builds on CQ's 60-year reputation for objective and accurate election
coverage. The core reporting staff also includes Marie
Horrigan, a former White House correspondent
for United Press International
and CQ reporter Rachel Kapochunas.Final Harris Poll Gives Labour a
Five-Point Lead
The reason for the difference between all eligible voters and the voters
who are most likely to vote is that 67 percent of Conservatives say they are
absolutely certain
to vote compared to only 61 percent of Labour supporters
and 60 percent of Liberal Democrats.
About Harris Interactive(R)
Harris Interactive Inc.com), the 15th
largest and fastest
-growing market research firm in the world, is a Rochester,
N.Y.
About HI Europe
HI Europe (http://www.contributing mp
On Election Night will
post stories on each key race as soon as the
outcomes are determined.
* Discussion areas for each story where CQ's audience shares its
thoughts
and perspective with other CQpolitics.com, CQ Homeland Security, CQ
Budget Tracker
, CQ HealthBeat, CQ Green Sheets, Governing Magazine and a line
of books and directories under the
CQ Press imprint. and Congressional Quarterly
Inc. are privately owned by the Poynter Institute,
a non-profit school for
journalists in St.
* 92 percent of those who voted Conservative in
2001 plan to vote Tory
tomorrow, compared to only 77 percent of those who voted Labour who
plan to vote Labour again. The data are weighted demographically -- by
sex, age, education
, income and location.
TABLE 7
IMPORTANCE
OF ELECTION TO FUTURE OF UK
"Each general election is significant.
Press Contacts:
Nancy Wong
Harris Interactive
585-214-7316
Kelly Gullo
Harris Interactive
585-214-7172
Harris Interactive Inc.politico contributing
This
analysis shows:
* A substantial gender gap, with men equally split between the two main
parties
but women giving Labour a nine point lead. They include refusals
to be interviewed (non-response
), question wording and question order, and
weighting.-based global research company that blends premier
strategic consulting
with innovative and efficient methods of investigation, analysis and
application
. Known for The Harris Poll(R) and for pioneering Internet-based
research methods, Harris Interactive
conducts proprietary and public research
to help its clients achieve clear, material and enduring
results.
Men are more optimistic about the economy than women (37% compared to
23% of women), 46 percent of those who voted Labour in 2001 are
optimistic (compared to
14% Conservative), and 59 percent of those who
voted Conservative in 2001 are pessimistic
about the economy now
(compared to 22% Labour). However, some are more important to
the
future of the country than others.
TABLE 8
OPTIMISM/PESSIMISM ABOUT FUTURE OF ECONOMY
"How pessimistic or optimistic are you
about the future of the national
economy?"
Base: All Adults in Great Britain who are eligible
to vote
Total Gender Party Voted for in 2001
Male Female Conservative Labour Liberal
Democrat
% % %
% % %
Optimistic (NET) 30 37 23 14 46
27
Very Optimistic 4 6 2 * 7 2
Somewhat
26 31 21 14 39 25
Optimistic
Neither
Pessimistic
Nor
Optimistic 34 29 40 27 32
33
Pessimistic (NET) 36 34 37 59 22 39
Somewhat
29 27 31 46 20 31
Pessimistic
Very
Pessimistic 7 7 6 13 2 8
Percentages may
not add up to 100% due to rounding. It is impossible to quantify the errors that may result from these
factors.
About Harris Interactive(R)
Harris Interactive Inc.whitehall politico
Congressional
Quarterly Launches Free Political News Web Site
to Cover Every House, Senate, and Gubernatorial
Race Nationwide
WASHINGTON, Congressional Quarterly Inc.
"These findings suggest
that voter turn out will be a key issue,"
commented George Terhanian, President of HI Europe.
Will the race be close?
This poll suggests the result of this election will be closer
than the gap
in identification because, as the data show, Conservatives were more likely
than
Labour supporters to have voted in the 2001 election, and they are also
more likely to do so on Thursday
.
Online ballot for voters
Adults who are online and eligible to vote said that if
given the option
to vote using an online ballot system via an Internet connection in their
home
, more than one in four (26%) would use this system to vote. 58 56 60
Expect Labour to win by a big margin.ananova newsnow
com to pursue its theme, 'Midterm Elections Matter,' while
expanding our readership to different audiences. Petersburg. Liberal Democrats Supported
by 22 Percent of Likely Voters
ROCHESTER, N.5%. Known for The Harris Poll(R) and for pioneering
Internet-based
research methods, Harris Interactive conducts proprietary and public research
to
help its clients achieve clear, material and enduring results.com), Paris-based
Novatris (http:/
/www.booksellers yougov
"
With the launch, CQPolitics.
* Access to the highly acclaimed "CQ Election Forecaster
," which tallies
how many seats CQ's political reporters and editors predict will change
hands in the House, Senate and governors' offices. The site will also
include interactive
maps that will detail those picks on which seats are
safe or at risk of changing parties this
year. offices and wholly owned
subsidiaries: London-based HI Europe (http://www.
Contacts:
Nancy Wong
Harris Interactive
+1-585-214-7316
Kelly Gullo
Harris Interactive
+1-585-214-7172
(http://www.harrisinteractive. HI Europe
is known for its expertise in
strategic business and consumer research, particularly in the IT and
telecom
industries. (http://www. offices and wholly owned
subsidiaries: London-based HI Europe
(http://www.mp bookshop
* Less than 0.com), the 15th largest and fastest-growing
market research firm
in the world.
To become a member of the Harris Poll Online(SM) and be invited to
participate
in future online surveys, visit http://www.politico yougov
"This exciting 2006 campaign season will
allow CQPolitics
. And the latest links
to the best politics blogs, video clips and topical Web sites. CQ is
owned by the Times
Publishing Co. of St.
However, this is not a prediction of the vote
.harrispollonline. Of those who
said they would certainly or probably would not vote in the upcoming
election,
one in five (19%) say they would be absolutely certain to vote using this
system.
TABLE 9
LIKELIHOOD TO USE ONLINE VOTING
SYSTEM
"If you were given the option to vote in the upcoming election using an
online
ballot system that you could access via an Internet connection in your
home, how certain would you
be to vote using this system?"
Base: All Adults who are online
Total
Likelihood to Vote in Upcoming Election
Certainly Probably Probably
Quite Absolutely
Will Will Not Will Vote Certain Certain to
Not Vote Vote to Vote
Vote
% % % %
% %
Absolutely
certain to
vote using
this system 26
19 19 26 28 28
Quite
certain to
vote using
this system 15 6 18 19 20 14
Probably
would
vote using
this system 23 15 23 31 25
20
Probably
would not vote
using
this system 12 10 18
9 12 14
Certainly
would
not vote
using this
system 11 29 8 8 7 12
Not Sure 12
18 15 7 9 12
Decline to
Answer 1
5 -- * -- *
Percentages may not add up to 100% due to
rounding.budgets bookshop
Merry, president and publisher.com is the product of the most trusted reporting team in
political journalism.
The number of these "very likely voters"
has increased somewhat
at the end of the campaign."
Demographic Analysis
The large sample used in this survey
allows an analysis by various
demographic groups with more confidence than for smaller samples. In
addition, propensity score
weights are used to eliminate other differences that exist when using
an
online sample to project the results to the population of all adults with
respect to the attitudes
and behaviors of the respondents. (http://www.harrisinteractive. But about equal proportions of
men
and women see themselves as Liberal Democrats (17% to 18%).com), the 15th
largest and fastest-growing
market research firm in the world, is a Rochester,
N.parliamentary constituency
CQPolitics. CQ's expanding
product
line includes: CQ Weekly, CQ Today, CQ. The prediction
(of a five-point Labour victory) is based
on 4,134 of those who are
"absolutely certain" to vote.com.
Those who voted in the
2001 election are significantly more likely to
think that the general election is important
to the future of the UK
(51% compared to 37% of those who were eligible but did not vote-
percentages are combined "extremely important" and "very important"
responses.5
%.com) is the London-based subsidiary of
global research and consultancy Harris Interactive Inc.Sites
for media coverage of politics in United Kingdom.
soundbites politico
CQPolitics. Its high-level readership includes nearly
every member of
Congress, as well as top officials in the Executive Branch, leaders in
business
and associations, top academic institutions and important media
outlets, providing these opinion
leaders with comprehensive, current and non-
partisan information on government, politics and public
policy. Forty percent of
eligible voters think of themselves as Labour supporters compared to only
27
percent who think of themselves as Conservatives and 17 percent who think of
themselves as
Liberal Democrats. However this is not a prediction of how, or
whether, people will actually vote
in the upcoming UK election.
Methodology
This HI Europe Harris Poll was conducted
online within Great Britain
between 26 and 28 April 2005 among 2,177 British adults aged 18 and older
, of
whom 2,090 are eligible and registered to vote in this upcoming election and
1,434 were eligible
and voted in the 2001 election.contributing whitehall
com., The final Harris Poll conducted
online by HI Europe, subsidiary
of Harris Interactive(R), among 6,411 eligible
voters throughout Great Britain from 1 through 4 May
2005 finds that Labour
has a five point lead over the Conservatives, among those who are most likely
to vote on Thursday.Y.
Party ID and the gender gap
Forty percent of all eligible
voters think of themselves as supporters of
the 'Labour Party', 27 percent think themselves as 'Conservative
', 17 percent
think themselves as 'Liberal Democrat' and three percent affiliate themselves
with
an 'Other' party.
The public is somewhat equally divided on the state of the National Health
Service (NHS).
TABLE 5
MILITARY ACTION
AGAINST IRAQ - RIGHT OR WRONG THING TO DO
"Thinking about everything that has happened, do
you think that taking
military action against Iraq was the right or wrong thing to do?"
Base: All Adults in Great Britain who are eligible to vote
Total
Gender Whether Voted in 2001 Election
Male Female
Voted Was Eligible But
Did Not
Vote
% % % % %
Wrong Thing
46 42 49 49 41
Right Thing 38 46 30
36 40
Not Sure 16 12 21 15 19
Total Party Voted for in 2001
Conservative
Labour Liberal Democrat
% % %
%
Wrong Thing 46 56 37 69
Right Thing
38 32 45 19
Not Sure 16 12
18 12
TABLE 6
IMMIGRATION POLICY
"Do you agree or disagree with the following statement: "The
current
government has been too lax with regard to its immigration policy?"
Base: All
Adults in Great Britain who are eligible to vote
Total
Party Voted for in 2001
Conservative Labour Liberal Democrat
% % % %
Disagree
16 3 24 22
Agree 73 96
62 68
Not Sure 10 2 14 10
Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding.
newsnow councillors
com will deliver:
* A daily newsletter
alerting readers to the latest headlines on the site. It is impossible to quantify the errors that may
result from these
factors.
Harris Interactive combines its intellectual capital, databases
and
technology to advance market leadership through U. Greater
proportions of those aged
55 and over think the election is extremely
important (25%) or very important (32%) to the
country's future.
* Less than 0.com.parliamentary newsnow
com will feature contributions from reporters and editors
throughout CQ's newsroom, the largest legislative and political reporting
staff in Washington
. In the general election to be held May 5th, for which party do you
intend to vote?
If undecided
Q.com), Tokyo-based Harris
Interactive Japan,
through newly acquired WirthlinWorldwide, a Reston, Virginia-based research
and
consultancy firm ranked 25th largest in the world, and through an
independent global network of affiliate
market research companies. HI Europe will
produce a final forecast based on polling which is currently
underway
immediately before the UK election on Thursday. Given everything eligible voters know about
the upcoming election, 58 percent of them expect the election to be close, 26
percent expect the
Labour Party to win by a big margin and only two percent
expect the Conservatives to win by a big
margin. Figures for age, sex, education,
income and region were weighted where necessary to bring
them into line with
their actual proportions in the population.harrisinteractive.com), Tokyo-based
Harris Interactive Japan,
through newly acquired WirthlinWorldwide, a Reston, Virginia-based research
and consultancy firm ranked 25th largest in the world, and through an
independent global network
of affiliate market research companies.councillors epolitix
com, Web readers across the nation -- and
even around the
world -- will discover what Washington insiders long have
known, that CQ is the gold-standard of
political writing," said Robert W.com readers. The Times Publishing Co. "If likely Labour voters
decide
not to turn out to vote because they have not been energized by the
campaign or because they are
upset by Tony Blair's Iraq policies" then the
Labour lead might very well shrink.S. How important
do you think this
election is with regard to the future of the United Kingdom?"
Base:
All Adults in Great Britain who are eligible to vote
Total Gender
Age
Male Female 18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55
+
% % % % % % % %
Extremely
Important 18 21 16 14 15 16 18 25
Very Important
29 29 29 29 22 35 27 32
Important 30 26 33
26 36 24 36 27
Somewhat
Important 20 20 20 29
23 22 15 14
Not At All
Important 3 4 2 2 3
3 4 2
Total Whether Voted in 2001
Voted Was Eligible But
Did Not Vote
%
% %
Extremely Important 18 20 12
Very Important 29 31 25
Important
30 29 31
Somewhat Important 20 17
24
Not At All Important 3 2 7
Percentages
may not add up to 100% due to rounding. The Company solves its clients' complex business problems through
thoughtful application of innovative methodologies and technologies, using
both traditional and
online methods.constituency moreover
CQ Politics Editor Bob Benenson has been covering
elections for nearly three decades
, including the last 24 years with CQ. Harris Interactive and HI Europe online polls use two kinds of
weighting to eliminate the biases in their raw, online data.
-- 73% agree that "the current
government has been too lax with regards to
its immigration policy", 96% of those that voted
for the Conservatives
in 2001 agree, 62% of those that voted for Labour in 2001 agree, and
68% of those that voted for Liberal Democrats in 2001 agree.
Though this online sample
was not a probability sample, in theory, with
probability samples of this size, one could say with
95 percent certainty that
the results for the overall sample have a sampling error of plus or minus
2
percentage points of what they would be if the entire adult population had
been polled with
complete accuracy.councillors whitehall
Y.
TABLE 1
Voting Intentions
-- All Eligible Voters and Likely Voters
Q. Unfortunately, there are several other
possible
sources of error in all polls or surveys that are probably more
serious than theoretical calculations
of sampling error. EOE
M/F/D/V.
-- Nearly half of adults think that the election is extremely
important
(18%) or very important (29%) to the future of the UK.soundbites polling
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